- Business
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- Nov 07, 2020
Edgar Fiedler Quotes
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- Last Updated on May 30, 2021
- Forecast
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- Nov 07, 2020
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
- Out
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- Nov 07, 2020
If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model.
- Even
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- Nov 07, 2020
Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet it is also regularly exasperating and infuriating, occasionally even deranging.
- Forecasting
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- Nov 07, 2020
The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.
- Future
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- Nov 07, 2020
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead.
- Easy
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- Nov 07, 2020
If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not that easy.
- Enough
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- Nov 07, 2020
To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown in real growth is not enough.
- Experience
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- Nov 07, 2020
Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others continue to expand.
- Die
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- Nov 07, 2020
Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion.
- Government
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- Nov 07, 2020
At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a monster is an overdose of government policy.
- Judgment
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- Nov 07, 2020
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two major methods: macro-econometric models and eclectic judgment.
- Escape
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- Nov 07, 2020
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know when and in which direction!
- Job
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- Nov 07, 2020